The treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons npt is opened for signature. D e fi n i ti o n o f k e y t e r ms nu c l e a r w e a p o n a weapon, usually in the form of a bomb or missile, that explodes when a nuclear reaction. The literature on nuclear proliferation since the end of the cold war has centered on. However, the notable absence of favourable conditions for establishing a wmdfz in the middle east presents significant challenges. See the book overview and executive summaries for information on other chapters. Nuclear energy and proliferation in the middle east robert einhorn ore countries have pursued a nuclear weapon capability in the middle east than in any other region. But it was a critical, and probably the primary, reason. The dynamics of middle east nuclear proliferation middle.
Aug 27, 2017 how to prevent a nuclear arms race in the middle east. The potential proliferation of nuclear and chemical weapons technology and the vehicles that carry it, including ballistic missiles and artillery, represent a broader threat than the leadership in pyongyang. Several middle eastern countries have accumulated an extensive arsenal of chemical and biological weapons and the means to deliver them e. Israel is the middle easts principal nuclear power, though it has never officially acknowledged possession of nuclear weapons.
Middle eastern nuclear weaponfree zone me nwfz has not yet been. Robert einhorn, and richard nephew, the iran nuclear deal. Just one week after implementation day, when iran completed its nuclear commitments and the nuclearrelated sanctions were lifted, he spoke about the current state of nonproliferation affairs in the middle east with michael moran, visiting media fellow on peace and security at. In the middle east, following the toppling of saddam husseins regime.
The resolution adopted last in 2009 expresses concern about the israeli nuclear capabilities, and calls upon israel to accede. A nuclear weapon free zone nwfz in the middle east was first proposed in the. Iran is a singaorty, but is suspected of developing nuclear weapons capabilities. Alternative energy in the middle east, energy security, international political economy, and proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east. Finally it presents some thoughts on the dynamics of a multipolar nuclear competition in the middle east and the potential for regional nuclear conflict. Irans interest in nuclear weapons was not the only reason that it embarked on a nuclear power program. Steps toward a middle east zone free of nuclear international. Virtually all countries in the middle east are signatories of the 1968 nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt, the main international barrier to nuclear proliferation. International concern for the proliferation of nuclear weapons has continued to mount. In the event efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east fail, u. The dynamics of middle east nuclear proliferation is a collection of essays that shed light on how the genie got out of the bottle and offer ideas for putting it back in. The middle east and north africa mena is both the source of concern. The middle east is another area with high danger of proliferation.
The treaty recognizes five states as nuclear weapons states. Japan, south korea, and egypt executive summary nuclear activity in north korea and iran presents numerous challenges to the global nonproliferation regime. The risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east. November 2012 a top down approach to a nuclear weapons free zone in the middle east pierre goldschmidt background paper second eu non proliferation consortium seminar to promote confidence building and in. It is drawn, in part, from three priorities for combating nuclear proliferation, testimony before the u. As regional violence mounts and the region appears increasingly volatile, particular attention is being paid to the potential for the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east. Nuclear nonproliferation in the middle east context ed. The hague international model united nations qatar. The first section briefly presents what we know about which. These are the underlying questions in gawdat bahgats intriguing new study of nuclear. Apr 19, 2007 in addition, revelations about the existence of an illicit nuclear proliferation network run by a. Pdf the risks of middle east nuclear proliferation. Background gregory schulte writes in foreign affairs that, a nucleararmed iran might prompt other countries in the middle east to seek nuclear weapons it.
The middle east nuclear weapon free zone menwfz is a proposed agreement similar to other nuclear weaponfree zones. Foreign policy at brookings arms control and nonproliferation series iii 123 agreement an agreement for peaceful nuclear. Weapons of mass destruction in the middle east and north africa. United states national security strategy calls for the prevention of nuclear. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east jewish virtual library. There are opportunities for peace in the regionamerica must not squander them. Today, irans nuclear program, especially its enrichment capability, is the principal motivator for further proliferation in the middle east. Jul, 2017 nuclear energy is enjoying a resurgence in popularity, causing untapped markets in the middle east to become bidding grounds for foreign businesses in the nuclear energy sector. Momentum on regulating chinas nuclear industry increased with chinas nuclear safety law entering into force on january 1, 2018 and the state councils issuance of guidelines for the.
Nuclear energy development and proliferation concerns in. This paper appears as chapter 4 of restoring the balance. As of 2016, algeria, bahrain, egypt, jordan, saudi arabia, turkey, and the united arab emirates have all announced or initiated nuclear energy programs. Articles iv and vi of the nonproliferation treaty npt, which define rights and obligations with respect to peaceful use of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. A specialist in persian gulf and arabisraeli security affairs, he has published widely on irregular and conventional warfare and nuclear weapons proliferation in the middle. The world would be a better place to live, had the astonishing scientific discoveries not been. Pdf the middle east is undergoing fundamental transformations that could change the prospects for a nuclear weapons. But many observers fear that if iran joined that list, it would spark a nuclear arms race, starting with saudi arabia, irans chief regional rival. Isbn 9785953503860 nuclear nonproliferation in the middle east context this is the twelfth publication of the series titled the prospect of.
Since the early 2000s the nuclear nonproliferation regime has been seriously challenged, particularly by north korea and iran. Khan, which although fortunately now defunct provided fissile material production technology and nuclear weaponsrelated design information to both libya and iran, help underscore the dangers of proliferation in the middle east. Iaea 2005, communication dated 12 september 2005 from the. The middle east nuclear weapon free zone menwfz is a proposed agreement similar to other nuclearweaponfree zones. A vignette on forecasting nuclear proliferation describes fitting such models to the available data in a way that allows anyone able to run the free and opensource software r programming language to reproduce the analysis outlined in this article and experiment with alternatives. Conclusions nuclear proliferation is perhaps the most urgent longterm national security problem facing the united states. Pdf a nuclear weapons free zone in the middle east. How to prevent a nuclear arms race in the middle east. Nuclear fatwa the washington institute for near east policy. Also known as the iran nuclear deal, the jcpoa is yet another example of how nuclear proliferation was restricted in the middle east. This study examines nuclear proliferation in iran and israel.
Nuclear proliferation in the middle east center for. The idea of a rapid proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east is just the latest manifestation of an earlier domino theory, cold war visual. With the exception of israel, all states in the middle east have signed and ratified the treaty as of today. Chinas nuclear diplomacy in the middle east the diplomat. Israel is not a member of the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, and parts of. The primary factor driving nuclear proliferation in the middle east is israels unacknowledged possession of nuclear weapons, something that the west, and in particular the united states, often ignores. Disec preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons in the. A brief history of nuclear proliferation by volha charnysh, napf intern introduction in the last hundred years, life expectancy doubled and many deadly illnesses were eradicated. By contrast, the middle east has emerged as a nuclear proliferation hotbed. There is a fear that should iran test nuclear weapons, other. The proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east has been a major threat to regional peace and global stability for several decades.
Steps towards the establishment of such a zone began in the 1960s led to a joint declaration by egypt and iran in 1974 which resulted in a general assembly resolution broadened in 1990 through the mubarak initiative to cover all weapons of mass destruction. Israel and nuclear proliferation in the middle east middle. Proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east. Of course, israels nuclear doctrine was formed during a period when it enjoyed a nuclear monopoly in the region. Focusing on why, not how why is an analysis of the strategies of proliferation necessary.
Dec 17, 2008 bruce riedel and gary samore write that attempts to stop irans nuclear program have failed. Security implications of the proliferation of weapons of mass. In fact, the middle east remains the region of the world most frequently recommended for such a zone. The perception gap over nuclear proliferation in the. Gawdat bahgat why do some countries seek to acquire nuclear weapons. Bruce riedel and gary samore write that attempts to stop irans nuclear program have failed.
With the destruction of the syrian reactor, the only middle eastern country aside from israel within reach of developing a nuclear weapons capability is iran. It could alter the decision calculus of irans leadership, reorder political alignments in the greater middle east, and strike a fatal blow to the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. Just one week after implementation day, when iran completed its nuclear commitments and the nuclearrelated sanctions were lifted, he spoke about the current state of nonproliferation affairs in the middle east with michael moran, visiting media fellow on peace and security at carnegie corporation of new york. Edited by steven spiegel, jennifer kibbe and elizabeth mathews, in cooperation with uclas center for international relations, the volume grew out of tracktwo discussions.
Proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east ebook. Nuclear proliferation position paper was written in the fall of 2016 for a graduate class in strategic theory and modern war. Pdf nuclear energy development and proliferation concerns. But in spite of these difficulties, we want to reaffirm our. Leaving aside israel, none has succeeded in acquiring nuclear weaponsat least so far. Nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament in the middle east. Adherence to the npt is not universal, and a few countries that are parties to the npt have violated their treaty obligations. Security implications of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the middle east israel had built a nuclear option not in order to have a hiroshima but an oslo. How can they be convinced to give up these aspirations.
Israel and nuclear proliferation in the middle east. The washington institute for near east policy v about the authors michael eisenstadt is director of the military and security studies program at the washington institute. The inc resolution is an item on the agenda of the iaea general conference gc. Nuclear nonproliferation in the middle east the national. By volha charnysh, napf intern from nuclear proliferation. Apr 10, 2019 there are only two middle east countries with nuclear weapons. Since the early 2000s the nuclear non proliferation regime has been seriously challenged, particularly by north korea and iran. Security implications of the proliferation of weapons of.
In addition, revelations about the existence of an illicit nuclear proliferation network run by a. According to a 20 report by us experts, israels nuclear arsenal includes 80 nuclear warheads, with enough fissile material potentially to double that number. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east and south asia. Hence, the importance of limiting the proliferation of nuclear in the weapons in the middle east is vital to its safety. A nuclear weapon free zone nwfz in the middle east was first proposed in the united nations general assembly in 1974 by iran and egypt in an effort to roll back israels acquisition of nuclear weapons and to restrain further proliferation in the region by having all states join both a nwfz and the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt. The middle east may present the greatest threat of nuclear proliferation in the world today. It analyses the motivation and the capability of both countries as well as the possibility of a preemptive israeli strike on irans nuclear installations. It cannot be fully understood without reference to the only nuclear power in the middle east israel. It could alter the decision calculus of irans leadership, reorder political alignments in the greater middle east, and strike a fatal blow to the international nuclear non proliferation regime.
Not least among these challenges is the possibility that the pursuit of nuclear weapons or a nuclear option by. House of representatives, subcommittee on national security and foreign affairs, june 27, 2007, and lets start with a nucleartestfree zone in the middle east, carnegie endowment for international peace, april 29, 2010. November 2012 a top down approach to a nuclear weapons free zone in the middle east pierre goldschmidt background paper second eu nonproliferation consortium seminar to promote confidence building and in. Shimon peres jerusalem post internet edition july 14, 1998 the focus of this monograph is the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and their means. Power, politics and regional threats arak ir40 heavy water reactor, iran photo. Strategies of nuclear proliferation strategies of nuclear. By the draft resolution submitted by egypt on establishment of a nuclearweaponfree zone in the middle east document ac. North korean military proliferation in the middle east and. Pdf the risks of middle east nuclear proliferation kyle. Managing nuclear proliferation in the middle east brookings. In the middle east, following the toppling of saddam husseins regime by an americanled international coalition, the international communitys attention has focused on irans nuclear programme.
The perception gap over nuclear proliferation in the middle east. The controversy over alleged iraqi nuclear weapons and the unsettled question of irans nuclear weapons ambitions have further intensified the debate over the nuclear arms race in the region. A realistic approach toward a middle east free of wmd. Pdf the risks of middle east nuclear proliferation kyle hansen.
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